Those who stand to be made or broken on the basis of their forecasts about Britain's economic future would do well to try something more reliable.
They could try sticking a pin in the list of runners and riders at the Grand National or risking their last pound on the National Lottery. The truth is, none of us can be sure about whether this nation, region and country are on the road to recovery - yet.
Every day we seem to get light and shade. One set of indicators raises hopes, only for another to dash them. That is why we can only give a guarded welcome to the news that the number of companies going bus in Norfolk in the last three months of 2009 was half the number at the same period in 2008.
It is encouraging to hear, and we hope that it is one of the much-vaunted "green shoots" of a genuine revival after such a long, depressing downturn. Goodness knows we could go with a lift. We should, however, all be braced for other bits of less uplifting news as we continue to bump along at the bottom of this recovery of sorts.
And that is why it is best to look forward to the coming spring with no more than cautious optimism.
Eastern Daily Press
18 February 2010